Most probable first-round upsets in the men's 2026 NCAA tournament - ESPN

Cinderella hasn't shown her face much of late.

Only five double-digit seeds won in the first round of the 2025 men's NCAA tournament, and two were 10-seeds, which don't qualify as Giant Killers for the purposes of this column. The Elite Eight was tied for the chalkiest of all time — all top-three seeds or better — and the Final Four was just the second ever to feature four 1-seeds.

But we know that part of what makes March Madness so fun is the upsets and trying to identify them before they happen.

To find this year's potential candidates, we consulted ESPN's BPI projections to find the matchups with the highest upset probabilities. Just keep in mind that probability does not mean predictability when filling out your brackets. And the probability of there being multiple upsets this March is low. NCAA tournament betting lines are larger than ever, and our Giant Killer model doesn't give any team seeded 11th or worse even a 40% chance of winning in the first round. It gives only one No. 12 seed — the perennial upset pick so many like to identify — even a 20% chance to bust brackets.

By comparison, last year there were four matchups with an upset chance of greater than 40%, and eight above 25%. Still, if you're looking for ways to differentiate your bracket and win a pool, let's run through upset options to consider.

Note: Because two No. 6 vs. No. 11 games are still to be determined by the outcomes of First Four games on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Giant Killers model takes all possible matchups into consideration.

Upset chance: 39%
6:50 p.m. ET on Thursday

North Carolina's ceiling is significantly lower with star freshman Caleb Wilson (broken thumb) out for the season. Predictably, the Tar Heels' efficiency numbers