Most people think the UK is already in recession

Over half of the public believe the UK is already in recession, a poll has found. Despite figures indicating modest economic growth so far this year, 61% of individuals surveyed by Ipsos believe the UK economy is in a downturn.

The poll was conducted before today's decision by the Bank of England to hike interest rates to 5 per cent. It reveals a pervasive sense of economic pessimism, reflecting concerns over rising interest rates and persistent high inflation, with two-thirds of respondents anticipating increases in both areas within the next six months.

The figures present a minor uplift from a similar May poll when 81% expected food costs to rise, yet the sentiment regarding the economy's health remains largely negative.

Expectations for 2024 remain subdued, with 71% predicting their weekly food shop will become more expensive and 66% anticipating utility bill increases. The survey, conducted with 1,000 UK adults between 16 and 17 June, preceded the latest inflation announcement of 8.7% and today's rise in interest rates.

Yet 42% of respondents forecasted their mortgage or rent payments would increase in 2024. Anticipated further interest rate rises have triggered warnings that around 1.4 million people could lose a fifth of their disposable income to higher mortgage repayments, and the average two-year fixed mortgage rate has exceeded 6%.

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When asked about the broader economy, 38% of individuals expect conditions to deteriorate in 2024, whilst a mere 23% anticipate improvement. Moreover, 61% foresee a recession hitting the economy next year.

In a stark overview of the nation's economic condition, 78% of respondents