MLB's top 5 breakout teams for 2026 - ESPN

Who is about to get a whole lot better in MLB?

Every year around this time, we take a stab at identifying which teams might break out in the coming season. Two years ago, I tackled it with an algorithm. Last year, I went with a more player-centric approach. The conclusion: It's not easy predicting which teams are about to break out.

First, what even is a breakout team? Let's define it like this: A breakout team is a club that wins at least 10 more games than what would be expected by its established level of play.

To define the latter, we won't get fancy: We'll use wins per 162 games for the previous two seasons, while giving double weight to the most recent season. Entering last season, the highest baseline win level was — you get one guess — the Los Angeles Dodgers, at 98.7. The lowest was the Chicago White Sox at 47.7.

Last year, there were three teams that beat their baseline win figure by at least 10, all in the American League: the White Sox, the Athletics and the Toronto Blue Jays.

Breaking out means different things for different teams. For the White Sox, it meant being less terrible than their record-setting 2024 collapse. For the Athletics, it meant a return to respectability, laying the foundation for a possible playoff run in 2026. For the Blue Jays, it meant falling inches shy of a World Series championship.

The total of three breakout teams in 2025 was lower than usual. By these definitions, there has been an average of 5.1 breakout teams per season during the wild-card era (since 1995). The yearly totals range from just two (in 2010) to nine (2023), not counting the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

There it is: In a typical season we can expect to have five breakout teams. The trick is to figure out who