Roki Sasaki is coming to MLB! In a decision sure to rock this offseason, the Chiba Lotte Mariners of Japan's NPB announced they plan to post their 23-year-old star pitcher, allowing the ace to join the majors for the 2025 season.
One of the most notable pitchers on the planet since he was a teenager, Sasaki has dominated in Japan's best league — and on the big stage of the World Baseball Classic — since 2021. He immediately becomes the No. 2 free agent in my offseason rankings (behind only Juan Soto).
Just how good is Sasaki? When could he sign — and for how much? And which teams are shaping up as the favorites to land him?
Let's dig in as an ace gets added to the top of this year's free agent class.
Really, really good — and he isn't even a finished product yet. Sasaki became famous for hitting 101 mph in high school and then breaking the Japan NPB record with 19 strikeouts in a perfect game when he was just 20 years old.
From a stuff perspective, Sasaki ranks near the top of the scale. In the 2023 NPB regular season, his fastball averaged 99 mph with above-average ride/lift and run/tail. His best off-speed pitch is a devastating splitter that is one of the best on Earth. Because his splitter doesn't have the heavy arm-side run of most, he can use it effectively against both right- and left-handed hitters. Sasaki's third-best pitch is his slider, a plus offering in 2023 that he used almost exclusively against right-handed hitters. He also probably has room to add a new pitch or two to his three existing offerings, be it a splinker like Paul Skenes picked up in the minors or something softer like a curveball for early in a count — or maybe both.
That's three plus to plus-plus pitches, and Sasaki's walk rate suggests
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