MLB 2026: Why Brewers, Guardians keep defying expectations - ESPN

The Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Guardians are in the midst of a three-game clash that might cause a rift in the space-time continuum. That's because in many ways, the two perennial contenders in their respective Central divisions are each other's doppelgänger.

This is true not because these are two franchises that, back in the 1970s, believed it would be a good idea to host a 10-cent beer night (It was not). It's true because they are perennial winners who enter each season criminally underrated.

By comparing opening over/under figures for wins from the betting markets to the actual results, we can get a glimpse of how teams perform against expectation. Here are the top-five overachievers from 2016 to the present, a period that coincides with Cleveland's 2016 World Series appearance and the first full season Craig Counsell managed the Brewers, more or less kicking off an era of Milwaukee teams as we've come to know them:

Average games won vs. preseason over/under win total, 2016 to present:

Over the past 11 years, the Brewers' average expected win total has been 81.1; they've won an average of 89.2 games. For the Guardians, the expectation has been 84.5 wins; they've won an average of 90.1.

How does this keep happening? Why do the Brewers and Guardians keep confounding their season forecasts?

The teams are of little help. Their organizational practices are proprietary and for good reason — every little innovation can be used as a competitive advantage, and these teams have been among the most innovative. You can ask them for insight, but you'll be greeted with a wry smile and evasive generalities. They're good at that, too.

Thus, we can't fully know what the Guardians and Brewers do to stay ahead of the projections.