Men's basketball conference tournaments historical trends for top vs. lower seeds - ESPN

If you're antsy for March Madness and peak bracket season, there's no better way to warm up than by locking into the conference tournaments.

Last season, we had an amazing five bid thieves, and there's always some form of mayhem that takes place in traditional one-bid leagues.

What will this year's action bring?

Though we can likely agree that past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance, it's fun to analyze which tournaments have favored higher vs. lower seeds in recent history. The membership of many conferences has changed with continued realignment, so the primary focus will be on results since 2021. However, many trends that go further back are too juicy to ignore, so they will be mixed in as well.

Because there are many ways to characterize the volatility of a specific conference tournament, here is a sampling of the factors that were taken into consideration:

Average seed of the champion

Combined average seed of the finalists

How often the top 2- or 3-seeds lose their first game

How often a lower-seeded team makes a deep run

Now let's break it down.

Note: Averages shown below are since 2021, unless otherwise noted.

Average seed of champion: 1.3 (T-2nd lowest)
Average combined seed of finalists: 3.0 (lowest)

There is no more predictable conference tourney this century than the WCC. It all starts with Gonzaga, which has made the title game an astounding 27 straight years, always as the No. 1 or No. 2 seed.

No conference comes close to the WCC in holding form at the top, either, as it has been a 1-vs.-2 in the title game 15 of the past 16 years. In 12 of those 15 years, it has been Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's — BYU, which has since left the conference, is the only other team to make the finals in