Lille are doing everything right in Ligue 1 – apart from winning games

N ine Ligue 1 managers were sacked between 9 October and 9 January. When Lille failed to beat Reims in January and fans jeered the team, it looked like Paulo Fonseca was going to be the next to go. Despite the shaky results, Lille stuck with Fonseca and they won three of their next four matches – the only blip coming in a wacky 4-3 defeat at PSG. Their league position has not improved substantially – a 1-1 draw with Lens on Saturday leaves them sixth in the table, 10 points behind second-placed Marseille – but results do not tell the whole story of Fonseca’s impact. A look at the underlying numbers suggests that Lille are ready to fly.

Lille have won the xG battle in their last 19 league matches, including their defeat at PSG. When it comes to expected goals, only PSG have done better this season. Lille also rank second for expected points and in FiveThirtyEight’s SPI ratings, a cousin of expected points.

Even though they have conceded 33 league goals so far this season, an underwhelming record for a team in the top half, Lille have conceded the fewest completed passes within 20 yards of their goal; and only PSG have managed more passes in the attacking third. Fonseca’s team are top for Field Tilt, which measures territorial dominance, and they are also leading the way in some more traditional metrics – enjoying the second highest possession share, while taking the most shots and conceding the fewest.

They pass the eye test too. Striker Jonathan David is back to his best and has scored 16 goals so far this season – only Kylian Mbappé has more. Their summer signings have also proved astute. Rémy Cabella looks like one of the best playmakers in France again; Adam Ounas has rekindled some of the devastating form he showed