Judging biggest overreactions for NFL Week 16 - ESPN

'Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the house, NFL fans were obsessing… «Who's in? Who's out?»

As Week 16 of the 2023 season winds to a close, some playoff races look like they'll be won by a nose.

The Dolphins and Ravens and Lions are in, but for others, the margins look impossibly thin.

So enjoy, if you will, this week's overreactions, before you embark on your holiday distractions.

Jump to:
Bills over Dolphins in the AFC East?
Nacua over Stroud as OROY?
Pickett out in Pittsburgh?
Howell out in Washington?
Jaguars missing the playoffs?

Honestly, this could have gone either way. Had the Bills not come back to beat the Chargers on Saturday night, we probably would have found a way to bury them in this space. But come back and beat the Chargers they did, and now the Bills are 9-6 and still in the hunt for their fourth straight division title. They finish with a Week 18 game in Miami against the Dolphins — a team they beat 48-20 back in Week 4. And while Buffalo gets what appears to be a layup against the Patriots in Week 17, the Dolphins have a tough matchup against the Ravens in Baltimore.

If the Dolphins — who held on for a huge win Sunday against the Cowboys in Miami — lose to the Ravens, and the Bills beat the Patriots, the Week 18 matchup in Miami will determine the division champ.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Miami has something special going on this season and could make a deep playoff run — and I think there's a good chance it holds on in the division. All of that said, the Bills have won the division three years in a row, and the Dolphins went into the tank at the end of the 2022 season before backing into the playoffs. Buffalo knows what it takes to win the big games during this time of year, and the