Joel Embiid fending off Nikola Jokic, injury to be NBA MVP betting favorite - ESPN

Last season, it took a career- and league-high 33.1 points per game, and perhaps a bout of voter fatigue, for Joel Embiid to dethrone Nikola Jokic as the NBA's Most Valuable Player.

This season, the two superstar big men are the front-runners for the honor yet again, with Embiid taking a lead in the betting odds (currently +140 on ESPN BET) after a historic 70-point performance Monday pushed him to 36.0 PPG on the year.

Embiid and Jokic will go head-to-head for the second and final time this season when the 76ers face the Nuggets in Denver on Saturday, a game that will presumably be another pivotal moment in the heated race.

But there's an added twist in this season's MVP competition that affects Embiid more so than any other player vying for the NBA's top individual honor — and that bookmakers have had to reconcile with more and more as the season unfolds.

«Joel Embiid's main competition for NBA MVP at this point in the season is playing 65 games,» BetMGM senior trader Halvor Egeland told ESPN. «In previous years, Embiid would have a minus in front of the [140] instead of a plus. It's an added wrinkle to the awards this year that we're closely monitoring.»

Ahead of the 2023-24 campaign, the league instituted a new rule stating that a player must play at least 65 games in order to be eligible for any major individual award or an All-NBA team. The development is already having serious financial implications, and it's forcing sportsbooks to do more mental gymnastics when creating lines for awards futures, particularly as it pertains to the historically injury-prone Embiid.

It would explain why, despite being the reigning MVP, the 29-year-old opened the season at +650 to repeat at DraftKings — behind Jokic (+450), Luka