‘It’s a mind game for NSW now’: data reveals extent of Queensland’s edge in tight State of Origins

M ark Geyer may have played his final State of Origin match more than three decades ago but he has never forgotten the feeling. A handful of minutes left on the clock, a razor-thin margin on the scoreboard and the overwhelming pressure that comes with knowing only one team will walk off the field victorious.

“It’s immense,” the former NSW hard man says of “the close ones”, those Origin thrillers hanging in the balance moments before full-time. “No matter what you’re playing, whether it’s Origin, club footy or Test matches, there is a lot more anxiety the closer the score is late in the game.”

The data shows Geyer – and Blues fans – have a particular right to be anxious, with the Maroons all over NSW when it comes to winning tight matches.

Queensland have a success rate of 51% in Origin games decided by seven points or more, but that jumps to 59% in games decided by six points or fewer. With nearly half of the 126 Origin games decided by these small margins, the Maroons’ ability to clinch tight games is a key reason for their dominance.

Since Brad Fittler took hold of the Blues coaching reins in 2018, NSW have outscored Queensland 350 to 238, and yet each team has won eight matches. Six of the Maroons’ eight wins have been by six points or fewer, which doesn’t even include their epic 26-18 triumph in this year’s series opener, when they scored two tries in the final 10 minutes despite playing with only 12 men.

“They should never have won that game,” says Clinton Schifcofske, who kicked the series-winning goal in the Melbourne miracle of 2006 when the Maroons likewise scored two tries in the final 10 minutes to snare a 16-14 victory.

“When [Tom] Flegler got sinbinned, I got up to make a cup of tea because I thought