Intelligent Hockey: Best bets for Wednesday's Game 4

Hold off on those Colorado parade plans, at least for a bit more. The Avalanche’s inexorable march to winning the Cup hit a snag on Monday night. Colorado’s aura of invincibility fizzled as the Lightning improved their forechecking play, exposed Avalanche goaltender Darcy Kuemper, and capitalized on the Andre Burakovsky injury. 

Are we looking at a speed bump or pothole for Colorado? Game 4 provides a window of opportunity for bettors, but making sense of what happened in Game 3 is the only way to calibrate our wagers properly for Wednesday night.

Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning Wednesday, June 22 – 8:00 PM ET 

In Colorado, the Lightning badly lost the forechecking battle on both ends. On Lightning breakouts, the Avalanche effectively sealed the boards and forced turnovers, trapping the Lightning in their own end, which led to coverage breakdowns. In Game 3, the Lightning pivoted, shrewdly opting to use the flip pass as a method to parachute out of the zone. 

The flip pass can provide multiple suitable outcomes. It can stretch the zone and put the Lightning forwards in position to prey on the Avalanche’s marooned defencemen. Other times, it provides the Lightning skaters a second to catch their breath, gap up, and try to hold the line, or at least throw sand in the gears when Colorado tries to regain the zone. 

In Games 1 and 2, the Lightning’s forecheck was hindered by the Avs’ skaters impeding their path to the puck with off-the-puck interference. One reason this worked so successfully for Colorado was that Tampa Bay’s forecheck was conspicuously out of sync; Tampa Bay was aggressive when there wasn’t support and passive at the wrong times. The Avs were able to zoom out of their end and fly through the