Intelligent Hockey: Best bets for Saturday's Game 7s

The NHL playoffs have delivered. This Saturday we have three Game 7’s, featuring marquee franchises and the game’s best players. You know the action is good when you’re seesawing between despair and elation. With the drama at full tilt, I am honoured to be your guide for the thrilling final weekend of the first round.

Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes Saturday, May 14 – 4:30 PM ET 

This is a series geared toward hockey purists. Instead of speed in the open ice and dazzling displays of skill, the dominant image has been several bodies huddled in a corner fishing for the puck. The Bruins and Hurricanes were two of the best teams in the underlying numbers during the regular season, and both teams achieved that through shot volume, a dogged forecheck, and conscientious checking.

Through six games, the home team has won every time, and the line-matching advantage for the Hurricanes has me thinking they will best the B’s on Saturday.

Jordan Staal, Nino Niederreiter and Jesper Fast comprise Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour’s shutdown line and, through three games at home, a single number stands above all others: one. That is the number of goals scored by Patrice Bergeron’s line when Staal and Co. are on the ice. The catastrophic effect of the Perfection Line being stymied had coach Bruce Cassidy move David Pastrnak away from Bergeron and Brad Marchand, and I expect more tinkering in Game 7 if the play of Boston’s top-six forwards stagnates. 

At first glance, it looks ugly. When in Carolina, the Bruins have been outscored 8-3 at 5-on-5. But when the score is within one goal, the Bruins have a +5 high-danger chances differential. In expected goals, Boston has dominated. So, what gives? Consider: When Jeremy Swayman took over