How to bet Broncos-Chiefs on MNF: Mahomes back, KC a field goal fave - ESPN

Week 1 wraps up with Patrick Mahomes making his return to action when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos on «Monday Night Football» (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC).

I love Week 1 games with divisional opponents because it gives us a road map of what to look for based on previous head-to-head matchups, which includes personnel usage, scheme and more. And we get that here with Denver and K.C. on Monday night.

• Three bets for every team | Outlooks
• Betting storylines for '26 | Week 1 odds
• Four keys to betting the 2026 season
• O/U wins | Playoffs Y/N | Player props
• Projections and best bets for rookies
• NFL awards odds tracker | Early picks
• Super Bowl odds: Rams hold top spot
• Betting home | Super Bowl on ESPN

Yes, there is an unknown in this game with Mahomes after the season-ending knee injury in 2025. He's a natural mover and creator. Let's keep an eye on his mobility in this one. Now, going back to the Week 11 Broncos-Chiefs game last season (when Mahomes was on the field), Denver lowered their blitz rate slightly to 28.6% (down from their season average of 31.3%). And what do you get from the Denver secondary? A lot of single-high looks and man coverage.

Mahomes attempted 45 passes in that game, threw for 267 yards and was sacked three times. My take for Monday? Coach Andy Reid will use the run game — and free agent addition Kenneth Walker III — to control tempo out of multiple tight end sets. You don't want Mahomes dropping back 40-plus times versus this Denver pass rush.

On the offensive side for the Broncos, Davis Webb takes over as the new playcaller, though I expect to see coach Sean Payton's influence in the game plan, which includes the quicks and shot plays deigned for offseason addition