How the Dream, Mercury, Storm, Fever and Valkyries could surprise - ESPN

The battle to crown the WNBA's 29th champion begins when the 2025 playoffs tip off Sunday (1 p.m. ET on ESPN).

On paper, it looks like a three-team race: You have the defending champ New York Liberty, who still have star power — Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones — from last year's title run. Then there are A'ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces, who look better poised to rekindle their dynasty than at any point since they won it all for the second straight time in 2023. And, last but not least, there are the Minnesota Lynx — the clear-cut best team of the regular season — playing for their first championship with MVP front-runner Napheesa Collier.

There's a whopping 84% chance one of those three teams lifts the trophy, based on the implied probability of ESPN BET odds. That leaves just 16% between the remaining postseason squads: the Atlanta Dream, Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm, Golden State Valkyries and Indiana Fever — but although it's a long shot, it's still statistically possible one of those five could crash the championship party.

Let's make the case for why each of those five teams could make a deeper run than expected.

Note: «Elo simulated odds» are based on Elo ratings, which focus on a team's game-by-game results, with an emphasis on recent form. «SRS rating» is Basketball Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS), which is essentially a schedule-adjusted points per game differential.

MORE: Playoff predictions | Top 25 players | Schedule

ESPN BET odds: +1000 (7.8% implied prob.)
Elo simulated odds: 24.1%

SRS rating: +6.5 (second)
Offensive rating: 110.5 (second)
Defensive rating: 100.5 (second)

Best player: G Allisha Gray (7.6 wins added per 44 games)

Why they can win: If not for preseason priors,