How the Avs are dominating the Oilers

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With a win Saturday night at Rogers Place, the Colorado Avalanche took a commanding 3-0 series lead over the Edmonton Oilers. For Jay Woodcroft’s team, it’s kitchen sink time.

Can the Oilers claw their way back into this series? You never say never in the NHL – after all, it’s one of the few North American sports leagues that has seen playoff comebacks from three-game deficits. But this is a unique challenge for Woodcroft’s team. If not because of how magnificent the Avalanche look top to bottom, then because of what’s happening within the Oilers’ lineup.

If we do a premortem on where it’s went wrong for the Oilers over the first three games, three statistical indicators stand out. In no particular order:

1. The Avalanche are dominating the Oilers at even strength. 2. The relative dominance of Connor McDavid has declined. 3. Mike Smith’s play has sharply regressed.

There are surely other factors (the Oilers are dealing with some injuries, and the penalty differential has been favourable to the Avalanche) at play. But for the sake of this piece, let’s focus on the three broader components.

Avalanche domination at even strength 

We knew going into the series the Oilers would be undermanned – this is still a relatively top-heavy lineup against perhaps the deepest team in the league, and their path to success was another supernova performance from their star forwards. Beneath the surface, Oilers skaters have mostly had their clocks cleaned.

Colorado is obviously a unique opponent. Against Los Angeles, Edmonton had a surefire talent advantage and it showed. Against Calgary, the Oilers’ defence did a robust job keeping the Flames to the outside despite bigger shot deficits, and the tempo of their transition