How real are good starts from Tigers, Cardinals, Giants? - ESPN

We've inched past the quarter mark of the 2025 MLB season and, in many ways, the season has gone as expected: The American League looks to have a crowded playoff race, the Los Angeles Dodgers are good even with a slew of pitching injuries, contending National League teams are living up to expectations and we have some awful squads at the bottom of the overall standings.

That doesn't leave a lot of room for surprises, but let's look at five clubs that began the season with projected playoff odds of less than 50%, according to ESPN reporter Bradford Doolittle's initial preseason projections, and have so far exceeded those predictions.

Which of these teams are for real and which might be early-season flukes? We'll start with a red-hot AL team that has dominated the first two months — and no, it's not the New York Yankees.

(All stats through Sunday.)

Preseason playoff odds: 41.2%

Key stat: Last season, the Tigers hit 162 home runs in 162 games. This season, they hit 60 in their first 47 games, a pace of 207. The team OBP has improved from .300 (29th in the majors) to .333 (sixth). As a result, Detroit has increased its runs per game from 4.21 to 5.38.

Hot start: Former No. 1 picks Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize both scuffled in 2024, with Torkelson finding himself demoted to Triple-A at one point and finishing with 10 home runs and 0.3 WAR, and Mize going 2-6 with a 4.49 ERA and 0.2 WAR. Torkelson already has 12 home runs and ranks among MLB's best in RBIs, while Mize is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA.

Can he keep it going? Javier Baez was so bad in 2023 and 2024 that he likely would have been let go if he didn't still have three seasons left on his contract. However, not only is he hitting .291/.326/.485 in 2025, but he has moved