How long of a shadow is the Middle East conflict casting on the US election?

Earlier this week, the two lesser-known running mates of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris squared off in a vice-presidential debate in New York City.

While Senator JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Governor Tim Walz (D-Minnesota) faced a heavy dose of domestic-focused questions, the opening topic of the night was the ongoing fight between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas.

The question came just hours after Iran launched a largely unsuccessful barrage of ballistic missiles aimed at Israel, highlighting the importance of the current Middle East conflict and the impact the war could have on voters come November.

As the US election draws closer in a race where polls show a neck-and-neck contest between Trump and Harris, Iran’s growing direct involvement with Israel could make the Middle East conflict a higher priority issue for American voters.

While Benjamin Netanyahu would likely prefer a more supportive Republican White House led by Donald Trump, the Israeli prime minister nonetheless sits in a position of greater flexibility and autonomy than he has been afforded in months.

Tehran’s bombardment of Israel came as a response to a series of blows that Israel landed on Iran’s allies, including the assassination of Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The calculated risk Iran could lead to further escalation by Israel, which has been emboldened by recent successes in the war. While Joe Biden's administration will seek to tamper any escalation, both Netanyahu and the Democrat-led White House know that matters are complicated by the election just one month away.

Most US voters are supportive of Israel in the ongoing conflict. According to an August survey by the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs, 60% of