How kick-off time affects Premier League results

Analysis: The night owl effect means home teams are nearly 15% more likely to win games with later kick-offs compared to early kick-offs

By Daragh O'Leary, University of Galway

Is there a night owl effect in operation in the Premier League? I analysed all the fixtures in the English Premier League's 2021/2022 season and kept finding that home teams are significantly more likely to win fixtures during late kick-offs compared to early kick-offs. So why is this the case?

For a start, later kick-off times may mean lower levels of support for the away team. There is generally lower demand for later kick-offs. This is particularly the case for away fans who may have to travel long distances to attend football matches or even pay for accommodation if a return journey on match day isn’t feasible.

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From RTÉ Radio 1's Drivetime, Dr Daragh O'Leary discusses the night owl effect on Premier League kick-off times (discussion begins at 24.40)

Later kick-off times might also create more hostile environments for away teams to play in. Alcohol consumption is common among Premier League spectators and has been known to increase aggressive or violent behaviour. Given that drinking is typically considered a part of the night-time economy, it could be reasoned that later kick-off times better facilitate alcohol consumption among fans which makes for a more hostile atmosphere that intensifies home advantage.

There are normally 10 fixtures a week throughout the course of a Premier League