Here's how many medals Canada might win at the Olympics

Competition at the Paris Olympic Games begins exactly three weeks from today. It's kind of a soft launch, as we say in the media business, with a handful of preliminary-stage men's soccer and men's rugby sevens games kicking things off on Wednesday, July 24, followed by women's soccer (including Canada vs. New Zealand), archery, handball and more men's rugby sevens the next day. The opening ceremony is on Friday, July 26. Then it's off to the races, literally, as swimming highlights the first full day of competition on Saturday.

Anyway, this seems like a good time to check in on the latest Olympic medal projections from our friends at Nielsen's Gracenote (a division of the company that measures TV ratings). Their model crunches the results from various world championships, World Cups, Grand Prixs and other important competitions to predict the medal winners for all 329 events in Paris.

Gracenote's previous forecast, back in April, had Canada winning 22 medals — six gold, seven silver and nine bronze. That would match the country's second-highest total ever for a non-boycotted Summer Games (alongside Atlanta 1996 and Rio 2016) and fall two short of the non-boycott-record 24 medals Canada won three years ago in Tokyo, which included seven gold.

The new projections, released last week, drop Canada down to 20 medals. The good news is that the gold count remains at six and the silver increases to nine, but the bronze falls to five.

So, what's changed?

For the gold medals, not much. Gracenote's model still has swimming phenom Summer McIntosh winning both of her best events (the 400m individual medley and 200m butterfly) and 800m runner Marco Arop, judoka Christa Deguchi and break dancer Philip Kim (aka Phil Wizard) taking gold