Grand National: Preview and tips for the world's most famous steeplechase

4.00 Randox Grand National Handicap Chase 4m 2f 74yds

Lottery would be regarded by many as a rather aptly-named winner of the first official running of the Grand National in 1839.

Racing has always been laden with cliches and the widely held view that the Aintree spectacle is an almost random event, governed by lots of luck, can easily be dispelled by empirical evidence.

Lottery, ironically enough, was a well-supported 5-1 favourite of that inaugural National, and the market has been a good guide to finding winners of the race in the intervening years.

The paragraphs above are italicised for a reason. They're copied and pasted from my 2014 preview of the great race. In an age of automation and artificial intelligence, I’m not inclined to paraphrase or type them out a second time.

The runners and riders change over the years, but certain trends – and fallacies – remain.

You don’t need good luck to win a National, you just need to avoid bad luck. They’re two different things.

Favourites and second favourites have had a terrific record in this contest, although more so over the last 30 years, rather than in the entire history of the National.

Modifications made to the fences on safety grounds in recent years means this isn’t the jumping test it once was and younger horses with less experience have been performing better than they did historically.

The ability to stay this unique marathon distance is still the most important factor to consider. The alterations to the jumps have arguably turned this into more of a stamina test, with the field taking in the first few fences at a faster pace. Horses fall for a variety of reasons, but one of the main reasons is fatigue, which impacts technique, and that explains why a runner is