Giant Killers' 10 most likely first-round upsets in March Madness 2022 bracket

Time to pick some upsets.

Now that we have the complete NCAA men's tournament field of 68 for 2022, you're likely searching for that 12-over-5 upset that's bound to happen. If you're anything like us, you also want some numbers to point you in the right direction.

Giant Killers is here to help. Back for a 16th NCAA tournament, Giant Killers is our probabilistic forecast for NCAA tournament upsets. You can read the details here, but the idea is pretty straightforward: Giant Killers starts with a base probability of an upset from ESPN's College Basketball Power Index and adds the strengths, weaknesses and styles of the two teams in each matchup.

As always, Giant Killers considers only matchups with at least a five-line seed differential (a No. 11 over a No. 6 in the first round, for example). We know there will be upsets in the NCAA tournament. Our model is here to try to spot them in advance.

Here are Giant Killers' top 10 most likely upsets of the first round.

No. 11 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 6 Colorado State Rams Upset chance: 64%

The committee must like heavyweight collisions in its 6-11 games. Michigan's Hunter Dickinson and Colorado State's David Roddy were both included on the Wooden Award's Midseason Top 25 Watch List. Now they'll go head-to-head against each other.

It's possible the committee also likes scoring. Both teams figure to put points on the board in this game, but the model does like how the Wolverines match up against a CSU rotation that ranks in the 300s for average height at KenPom. The combination of Dickinson and Caleb Houstan, in particular, could be a tall defensive order for Niko Medved's team.

No. 11 Virginia Tech Hokies vs. No. 6 Texas Longhorns Upset chance: 49%

One day after knocking off