Giant Killers: 10 most likely first-round upsets in March Madness - ESPN

Ready to pick some upsets?

Now that we have a bracket for the 2024 men's tournament, you're trying to spot that 12-5 upset everyone says is going to happen. If you're like us, you'd also feel more comfortable with some numbers to support your hunches.

Giant Killers is here to help. Back for a remarkable 18th consecutive NCAA tournament, Giant Killers is our probabilistic forecast for March upsets.

You can read up on the details if you wish, but the idea itself is straightforward. Giant Killers starts with a base probability of an upset from ESPN's College Basketball Power Index and adds the strengths, weaknesses and styles of both teams in a given matchup. Then, your humble co-writers add the human element, make a slight adjustment or two and come up with the 10 best upset opportunities.

As it has done from the start, Giant Killers considers only games with at least a five-seed differential. So, for example, picking a No. 11 seed over a No. 6 in the first round is fair game.

We all know that upsets will happen. Our model is here to try to spot them in advance.

Here are Giant Killers' 10 most likely upsets of the first round.

Yes, we heartily agree with other laptops, Vegas, social media and that know-it-all relative. This looks like a game where the Lobos are straight-up favorites. UNM's Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House form arguably one of the better backcourts in the entire field. The committee might view this bid as having been «stolen» by New Mexico, but Richard Pitino's group is quite capable of advancing.

Dana Altman and Oregon peaking in March is a thing. We've seen the Ducks steal a bid a few times now, and they are unbeaten in the first round under Altman, including a pair of double-digit wins as a 12-seed.