France’s government has collapsed. What happens next?

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government collapsed on Wednesday following a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly (lower house of parliament).

The left-wing coalition NFP and the far-right National Rally party (RN) cast their ballots en masse against the former Brexit chief negotiator after Barnier used Article 49.3 of the Constitution to push through the 2025 social security budget plan without a parliamentary vote. 

Michel Barnier will likely be asked to stay on as a caretaker government, just like former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal did this summer after French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly following his party's crushing defeat in the EU elections.

The caretaker government will have to expedite current affairs and cannot vote on new laws. 

It’s up to Macron to nominate a new prime minister and he has no specific deadline. The president has expressed his intention to act swiftly, within the next 24 hours. The Elysée has also confirmed a televised address for Thursday at 8 pm local time.

However, the choice of the new prime minister will be complex as the current National Assembly, formed after the last elections, is more fragmented than ever and lacks a clear majority.

It took the head of state just about two months this summer to choose a name he was confident would not automatically be shut down by MPs. New legislative elections can only be called next July. 

A few names have been circulating as of Wednesday, including the current Minister of Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu, or François Bayrou, the leader of the centrist MoDem party.

Some parties forming the left-wing NFP coalition have stuck with their initial choice of Lucie Castets, an economist and civil servant. 

Castets,