Fragile Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire likely to hold, analysts say

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has held for over a month, although the terms of the deal appear unlikely to be fully met by the deadline in late January.

The agreement, struck on 27 November to halt the conflict, required Hezbollah to immediately cease hostilities in southern Lebanon and required Israel to withdraw its forces there and hand control of the region over to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers in 60 days.

So far, Israel has only withdrawn from two of the many towns it controls in southern Lebanon. It has continued striking what it claims are Hezbollah bases, accusing the group of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be seized and destroyed.

Hezbollah, which has been severely weakened by nearly 14 months of conflict, has warned of resuming hostilities if Israel fails to fully withdraw by the 60-day deadline.

Despite accusations of ceasefire violations from both sides, analysts suggest the truce is likely to hold, offering hope for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war and still waiting to return home.

“The ceasefire agreement is somewhat ambiguous and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington. He noted that this flexibility may help the agreement hold in the face of changing circumstances, including the ousting of Syria’s long-time leader Bashar al-Assad which occured just days after the ceasefire took effect.

With al-Assad’s departure, Hezbollah lost a key smuggling route for weapons from Iran, further weakening the group. However, Israel had already agreed to the US-brokered ceasefire.

Hezbollah first launched rockets into Israel on 8 October 2023, a day