Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 10 projections, matchups - ESPN

The Playbook is your one-stop shop for all your fantasy football decisions for Week 10, which kicked off Thursday night with a game between the Commanders and Giants.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start advice, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.

NE-DET | KC-ATL | HOU-CLE | MIN-GB | JAX-TEN | MIA-IND
CAR-NO | BUF-NYJ | SEA-LV | LAR-ARI | SF-DAL | PIT-CIN | LAC-BAL

Projected Score: Patriots 28, Lions 27

Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown , Jameson Williams, DeMario Douglas, Sam LaPorta

Fantasy Scoop: Douglas was an afterthought in the New England offense last season, posting a 31-447-3 fantasy line on 44 targets across 17 regular-season games. A bigger part of the offense here in 2026, Douglas is already at 31-434-4 on 46 targets through nine games. «Pop» is fresh off a career-high 102 receiving yards on a season-high nine targets against Green Bay on Sunday. He has now produced 15-plus fantasy points in four of his last five games, having averaged 5.8 targets per game and scoring four TDs during the span.

With A.J. Brown in doubt for Week 10, Douglas is positioned for a big role against a Detroit defense that has, even after a good game against Miami