Expert picks and best bets: Where do bettors lean on Yan-Dvalishvili and Nurmagomedov-Henderson?

Former UFC bantamweight champion Petr Yan makes his first Octagon appearance of 2023 against rising contender Merab Dvalishvili in the main event of this weekend's UFC Fight Night. The event takes place at The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas on Saturday (3 p.m. on ESPN+).

Yan, ranked No. 4 in ESPN's divisional rankings, has lost two fights in a row by split decision. Most recently, he lost to Sean O'Malley at UFC 280 last October. Dvalishvili, ranked just behind Yan, is riding an eight-fight winning streak. All but one of those wins have come via unanimous decision.

On Friday night, Bellator MMA holds its third fight card of the year, Bellator 292 at SAP Center in San Jose, California (7 p.m. ET on Showtime). The main event features Usman Nurmagomedov putting his lightweight title on the line against Benson Henderson as a part of the lightweight Grand Prix. Nurmagomedov claimed the title with a unanimous decision win over Patricky Freire at Bellator 288 in November.

Brett Okamoto spoke to retired UFC welterweight and ESPN MMA analyst Alan Jouban to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis on both main events and other intriguing bets they like on the UFC and Bellator fight cards.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

How Yan wins: There are strategic keys for Yan, but in this fight, I feel the backstory is the most important factor. There's a lot on the line for Yan. Two losses in a row, and three losses in his last four, but Yan feels like he won all of those fights. He was beating Aljamain Sterling in their first fight before the illegal knee. Then the second fight could have gone either way, and he was