Expert picks and best bets - Can Abus Magomedov win in his first UFC main event? - ESPN

Abus Magomedov will make his first Octagon appearance of 2023 on Saturday as he faces Sean Strickland in the main event of UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+).

Strickland, No. 9 in ESPN's middleweight rankings, is coming off a unanimous decision win over Nassourdine Imavov in January. Magomedov, unranked by ESPN, has only had one UFC fight — a first-round knockout over Dustin Stoltzfus last September.

Marc Raimondi spoke to the last fighter to beat Magomedov, 2018 PFL middleweight champion Louis Taylor, to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

How Strickland wins: Strickland's path to victory is to keep this fight on the feet. He also has to nullify Magomedov's kicks. Magomedov is heavy on the kicks and uses them to set up his wrestling and other strikes. Sometimes opponents can get so distracted blocking the kicks, they forget that he's going to shoot and he's going to punch. He's a true mixed martial artist. Strickland needs to stay long and avoid being flat-footed to win this fight.

How Magomedov wins: Strickland is the perfect matchup for Magomedov. He's a top-10 middleweight, and Abus is trying to break in and make a big splash. Strickland stands tall; his hands are not very high, though. He's a banger. Against Magomedov, these are all problems for Strickland. I believe Magomedov is going to melt him. He will throw a lot of volume kicks, which Strickland will try to counter with punches. Magomedov will put Strickland on his back, grind him out