Euros expansion leaves drama-lite qualifying for big nations

LONDON : As qualifying for Euro 2024 resumes on Friday, an unintended consequence of the expansion to 24 teams is quickly becoming apparent, with six teams already given at least a 95 per cent chance of making it to Germany with only two rounds of matches played.

With 20 teams qualifying automatically as the top two in each group and another three via playoffs, along with hosts Germany, a huge swathe of the event's jeopardy has been removed at the top end.

Research simulation by data company Nielsen Gracenote predicts that Switzerland (98 per cent chance of reaching Euro 2024 without playoffs), Portugal (98 per cent), France (98 per cent), England (97 per cent), Belgium (97 per cent) and Serbia (96 per cent) already have one foot in the finals despite still having the vast majority of their qualifiers to play.

Croatia, Poland, Czech Republic, Spain, and the Netherlands are also expected to progress, all having over an 80 per cent chance of direct qualification despite losing or drawing one of their opening games, as are Hungary, who have played one game.

Another five teams have at least an 80 per cent chance of finishing in the top two of their groups. Gracenote predicts the 20 most likely automatic qualifiers to be Switzerland, Portugal, France, England, Belgium, Serbia, Croatia, Poland, Czech Republic, Spain, Hungary, the Netherlands, Denmark, Scotland, Romania, Italy, Wales, Slovenia, Austria and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

It is a very different story to the tense campaigns that preceded the tournament when it comprised four teams up to 1980, when it expanded to eight, and 16 from 1996 until the 2021 edition when it first moved to 24. Qualifying matches were huge occasions, where one slip could and did cause a pedigree team