Euro 2024 permutations: Play-off picture still hazy

The Republic of Ireland's 2-1 loss to the Netherlands means our chances of qualifying for Euro 2024 are now in the hands of other countries.

A fourth defeat in five games makes finishing in the top two of Group B all but impossible and so coming through the play-offs is the only possible route for Stephen Kenny’s side to Germany.

Twenty of the 23 qualifiers (hosts Germany are automatically qualified) come via the 10 groups, with the final three places being decided courtesy of play-offs.

Those play-offs will be based on Nations League performances rather than where you finish in the qualifying group so Ireland could potentially come fourth behind France, the Netherlands and Greece and still make it. But what are the chances of that? Well, it’s about as straightforward as a Pep Guardiola tactics Ted talk but we’ll endeavour to explain.

The four group winners of Nations Leagues A, B and C are guaranteed play-off spots in their respective paths; (A): Spain, Croatia, Italy, Netherlands (B): Israel, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Scotland (C): Georgia, Greece, Turkey and Kazakhstan.

But some of those countries and most in League A will qualify automatically, opening up play-off spots for sides like Ireland, who ranked 10th in League B and 26th of 55 overall.

There were only seven teams in League D last time but winners Estonia are guaranteed a place in the A path if 13 or more of those 16 League A teams qualify automatically, which is currently the case. So if the the A play-offs were decided today they would be: Italy v Estonia and Poland v Wales.

Path B would be Israel v Iceland and Bosnia Herzegovina v Finland, and Path C Georgia v Greece and Kazakhstan v Luxembourg.

Ireland can only get into Path A or B and so want as many as