Estonia election analysis: Why the liberals won, the far-right lost, and other key takeaways

The votes are all tallied, the winners declared, and the dust is settling on Estonia's first election since the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine is over. 

The makeup of the next parliament - Riigikogu - looks familiar but also different: at the previous election in 2019 there were five parties represented, but now six parties have made it over the 5% threshold and returned MPs. 

Now talks begin to form the next government and here's where PM Kaja Kallas is hoping history doesn't repeat itself: in 2019 her Reform Party won the most seats in parliament but she was outflanked by right-wing parties who went on to form a coalition of their own. 

So what did we learn from the campaign and the elections? Here are our key takeaways: 

Incumbent Prime Minister Kaja Kallas had a strong night, with her centre-right Reform Party picking up three new seats, while opponents further right in the political spectrum suffered losses. Estonia's public broadcaster ERR called it a "landslide" win as Reform extended its lead over the far-right EKRE party to 15 seats. 

The win, Kallas said, "also shows that Estonians overwhelmingly value liberal values, security founded on EU and NATO, and firm support to Ukraine."

The new liberal bloc which has now emerged in Estonian politics could in theory mean that Reform would only need the support of one other party to form a majority government, but Kaja Kallas talked on the campaign trail about the need for building sustainable and solid alliances with other parties, so she's likely to look at two other parties with similar values to form her coalition: Estonia200 and the Social Democrats. 

At the last general election in 2019, the Estonia200 party fell just short of the 5% threshold to