Dubas set to make a fascinating wager

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In the past couple of weeks, Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas has indicated his team will leverage remaining cap flexibility to upgrade the defensive position ahead of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

How much cap space is going to be available to do that remains unclear – the team’s right against the salary cap ceiling, but defenceman Jake Muzzin’s $5.6-million cap hit is still on long-term injured reserve. Muzzin remaining on LTIR would give Toronto the flexibility to be aggressive (as opposed to targeted) at the deadline, but also comes at the cost of not having the 33-year-old veteran in the lineup.

What’s more interesting is Dubas telegraphing Toronto’s preferred move here. In past seasons, Toronto’s need to upgrade the defensive position was obvious – most of the team’s valuable assets were in the forward ranks, and the team’s poor showings and ugly losses generally coincided with miscues and breakdowns all over the defensive zone.

But this lineup is a bit different. Toronto has again been one of the best performers this regular season – sixth in goal differential (+0.8 per 60 minutes), and third in expected goal differential (+0.7 per 60 minutes). They are a bona fide Stanley Cup contender this time around. A six-year trended graph illustrates how far this club has come in the Auston Matthews era:

One of the interesting parts of this season is that Toronto is defying expectations on both ends of the ice. Offensively, the Maple Leafs are generating heaps of shooting volume from dangerous areas, and their shooters have been able to capitalize on a significant amount of those chances (10.5 per cent shooting percentage). Defensively, only two teams concede fewer expected goals than Toronto.