Donal Lenihan's Rugby World Cup semi-final predictions

New Zealand were waiting in the long grass for Ireland given what happened in the Test series in 2022. It has come come out since those game how much they have revamped their whole approach: revamped their defence as a consequence of how Ireland played.

In some ways that's the ultimate compliment but no consolation now that we're out of the tournament.

I think the driving factor for New Zealand here is 12 of their matchday squad tonight would have been part of the team that hammered Ireland four years ago in Japan and went into a semi-final against England in similar circumstances and ended up losing. I just can't see them allowing that to happen again.

The problem for Argentina has been scoring tries. I think in terms of territory and possession they have the highest percentages in the tournament but they struggle to score. They were really poor in their opening game, beaten well by an England team that had Tom Curry sent off after four minutes. That has been their problem, if you don't score tries against New Zealand you are not going to beat them.

On the flip side they played them in the Rugby Championship every year so they are familiar with them. They will be aggressive, are a united bunch, and have been improving throughout the tournament.

I just don't see New Zealand getting caught in a semi-final in two World Cups in a row.

Verdict: New Zealand

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