Don't be surprised if ... McMillan scores his first TD, Judkins finishes top 3 in rush yards - ESPN

Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don't be surprised!

NOTE: All mentions of fantasy points are for PPR formats, unless otherwise noted.

Let the doubters keep doubting when it comes to Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield. He finished last season as fantasy's No. 4 QB, behind Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Two of those fellows will not be repeating their achievement because of injury. Mayfield enters Sunday's game against the San Francisco 49ers third in points among QBs, behind Allen and Patrick Mahomes, and the Bucs' terrific rookie WR Emeka Egbuka is already a star.

I must admit to being a bit surprised at Mayfield's tepid rankings on ESPN and other sites this week. What more must we see to rank him better? Mayfield is not accumulating passing yards or touchdown passes like he did last season, but throwing only one interception in five games is important. The Egbuka addition has been critical. Mayfield's yards per attempt is up, and Egbuka is one of three wide receivers averaging 20 PPR points per game. It all looks sustainable.

The 49ers are in the middle of the pack in preventing fantasy points to quarterbacks and wide receivers, so expect another great outing from this duo. How about this: Expect greatness every week! Some may wish to float Egbuka's name in fantasy trades, since veteran Mike Evans (hamstring) should return to the lineup soon. Nah, that makes things better for everyone. Who can stop this offense with Egbuka, Evans, Chris Godwin Jr. and two solid running backs? Trade for Mayfield