Do big NFL free agent signings pay off? Sorting recent deals - ESPN

Few things are more exciting for NFL teams than landing a star free agent. It's cause for celebration among executives, coaches and fans alike. That first social media post hinting at the news? The official announcement? The photo op? The excited tweets from new teammates? It's literally in the name. Who doesn't want to get something for free?

It's fun, sure. But are these splashy moves always a good idea? How often do premium free agents really work out? In recent years, key signings have turned the tide for Super Bowl winners. Saquon Barkley and Zack Baun were superstars for the 2024 Eagles. Sam Darnold put together dominant stretches for the 2025 Seahawks. In the big picture, though, how often does a team sign a significant free agent, look back and say that it spent wisely?

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Today, I'll try to answer that question. I've gone back and looked at the top 50 free agents (by average annual salary) from each offseason between 2013 and 2022, giving us 500 players and plenty of time to see how they've panned out. With help from the free agent data compiled by Spotrac, I went through each player and evaluated how they performed versus the expectations that were set by their prior level of play and the contract they signed with their new team, determining whether those players lived up to the deal.

There are other interesting questions we can answer, too. Do certain types of players work out better than others? Are certain positions more likely to deliver free agent successes? Do younger players work out better than older ones? And at the very top of the market over that 10-season span, how did the highest-paid deals actually pan out? I'll try to answer all of those today.

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