College football 'ifs' list: How title contenders can come together - ESPN

The streak has ended. For 24 straight seasons from 2001 to 2024, we could confidently say we knew the pool from which college football's national champion would emerge.

According to SportsOddsHistory.com, no national title winner in that span began the season with title odds longer than +5,000. No matter the title format — a BCS championship, then a four-team College Football Playoff and then, starting in 2024, a 12-team CFP — the champ came from a pool of about 14 to 18 favorites.

Then came Indiana. Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers began the 2025 season at +10,000 — not ridiculously far from the elite pack but definitely outside the primary list of contenders — and rolled to 16 wins and their first ring. Now I must alter how I perceive the annual Ifs List.

For the past seven seasons, I've taken that premade list of contenders and looked at how many «ifs» are required to make that team champs. There are typically a couple of teams with two ifs, a good number with three and four, and a few (likely phony) contenders with five. To cover my bases and account for potential Indiana-like rises, I'm including not only the 15 teams with title odds of +5,000 or shorter, per DraftKings, but also the three longer shots with the fewest ifs. (Honestly, the three teams on that list surprised me a bit.)

As you would expect in 2026, there are lots of portal delivery needs for just about every team. As always, we won't worry about obstacles such as injuries to stars, which could strike any team at any time. Those concerns are obvious and universal. But let's charge forward into this new world of long-shot contenders and look at who's most capable of winning the title this fall.

For the first time, I didn't end up with a single team with only two