College football best bets for Week 4 - How to bet ASU-Baylor, Iowa-Rutgers and more - ESPN

College football Week 4 brings a board full of numbers that look tempting at first glance, but dig a little deeper, and the edges start to reveal themselves.

Some of these matchups hinge on mismatches in the trenches, others on pace and red zone execution and a few are simply about trusting what we already know.

I've run through the current stats and the storylines, and three bets made the cut.

All odds by ESPN BET

Bet to make: Tulsa +13.5

I saw this and caught myself saying out loud, «Why?!» Because Tulsa lost 45-10 last year? Different team.

Oklahoma State was up just 17-7 at the half against UT Martin and then got bulldozed the following week by Oregon. This is not just a slow start.

The concerns were there all summer: overhauled coaching staff, heavy reliance on transfers, no proven quarterback and an offensive line without a single returning starter. Those problems don't get fixed in two games, and so far the results line up. The run game is stuck at 3.2 yards per carry and the passing attack has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.

Tulsa is not flashy, but it's functional with a ground game that already has 19 runs of 10 yards or more. And the sneaky part is that Tulsa has the second-best pass rush grade by PFF even with only eight sacks in three games. The Golden Hurricane are winning battles up front even if it hasn't fully shown in the box score yet. That could show up against the Cowboys, where Zane Flores has been sacked twice in each game.

Oklahoma State should look better at home in a rivalry spot, but the efficiency gap is real. Tulsa has edges in the trenches and enough offense to keep this tight. This is me taking my preseason read, watching it come to life and fading Oklahoma State until it