College football best bets for Week 3 - Lay the points with Ducks at Northwestern? - ESPN

Week 3 of college football season is here, and the board is spicy. Lines are shifting, narratives are forming, and a few teams are still getting priced like their old selves.

I've circled my spots, run the numbers, and this week's card has a mix of edges I feel good about — the kind where matchup meets value. Week 3 feels like college football's version of speed dating because some teams look amazing at home, others look lost on the road, FCS opponents are muddying the waters, and we're still figuring out who's the real deal and who's just catfishing us.

No spoilers yet, but let's just say a couple of teams are about to get tested, and I'm betting the market hasn't caught up.

All odds by ESPN BET

Bet to make: Georgia Tech +3.5

The market is still pricing 2022 Clemson instead of what we've seen on the field. It's early. I know. However, I have doubts.

Clemson has struggled to find rhythm offensively. Cade Klubnik has talent — I thought Heisman talent — but this group is outside the top 90 in offensive efficiency and is converting just 31% of third downs. That's like trying to win a chess match when you keep losing your queen early.

The biggest mismatch here is explosiveness. Georgia Tech is top 30 in both passing and rushing EPA, while Clemson sits outside the top 80 in both. The mismatch matters because the Yellow Jackets don't need 12 plays to find the end zone, while Clemson often does. In a game projected to be tight, the team that can create quick-strike touchdowns or flip field position in one play has the edge, and right now that's Georgia Tech.

Through two games, GT's rushing offense has been one of the most efficient in the country. It ranks second in rushing yards, averaging over seven yards per carry, with