College football best bets for Week 1 - Can FSU hang with Bama? - ESPN

Week 1 is here, and my card feels like a mix of puzzle pieces and gut checks. Let's just say the board has a little bit of everything: live 'dogs, sneaky unders and one favorite, which I almost never back but couldn't ignore.

Heads up, you'll see Florida State catching double digits at home against Alabama. The surface-level stats scream stay away, but sometimes the story behind the numbers matters more than the numbers themselves.

Then there's a matchup where I'm leaning on tempo and chemistry, or really, the lack of it. Fast pace doesn't always mean points, and Week 1 installs can be messy. File that one under «efficiency over volume.»

Oh, and yes, there's a favorite on my card. Rare, I know. But when the matchup screams value, you listen.

In today's college football, where rosters flip overnight, the early weeks are a minefield. Keep the card light, bet smart, stay patient, and when you fire, fire with conviction. Week 1 has some small cracks in perception, mismatches the market hasn't fully priced in, and a few teams ready to surprise out of the gate.

We're back. Buckle up. Week 1 is here.

Bet to make: FSU +13.5 , OVER 50.5 total points

I know what you're thinking. Let's step back. Last year's numbers make Florida State look like a disaster, but context matters. After going undefeated in the 2023 regular season and being left out of the playoff, 2024 unfolded like a team still stuck in the shadow of 2023.

This year is different. With a rebuilt roster, fresh leadership and a renewed identity, this is an opportunity to reset.

Alabama is still Alabama in name, but the dominance is fading. The Crimson Tide ranked 52nd in run defense last year and allowed opponents to score on 85% of their red-zone trips on the road.