CFB Week 2 betting cheat sheet - Tips for Alabama-Texas, value in unders

Enough is enough. I just can't do it anymore. I am done betting college football unders. You just need too much to go right, especially at the end of games. If I want an under, I am now solely riding with the first half… but this is far from an impulsive and emotional decision spearheaded by a bad beat last weekend. I've been workshopping this mindset for the past couple years.

First, it's a sport that stops the clock on first downs, which are occurring with more frequency due to increased tempo and pass-happy offenses. I realize oddsmakers are well aware of this and bake that into the odds. However, I firmly believe the elongated game accentuates the wide variance of outcomes for a 60-minute contest. I prefer a more predictable first-half environment:

• Teams typically play conservatively in the first half, much like we see boxers in the early rounds.

• Early-game emotion and energy levels favor the defense, as fatigue typically arrives in the second half and inhibits tackling, and that early defensive energy offsets any offensive advantage by a team scripting plays to open the game.

• Coaches trailing by double-digits are more likely to take chances in the second half, creating more points or short fields for the opponent.

Now for the betting nuance that provides money-making opportunities; a game's point spread and over/under are computed using data points from the two teams' full-game statistics. After that, the first-half spread and total are commensurate. So, to reiterate, first-half betting lines are not calculated separately in a vacuum and only using first-half statistics from throughout the season. So, if first halves are played differently than second halves, then we should theoretically have an opportunity to