Cash, corruption, crumbling dams — that's China's Belt and Road Initiative, 10 years in

Xi Jinping’s Third Belt and Road Initiative Forum — and the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) itself — launched on Tuesday, featuring a long guest list that includes Vladimir Putin and the Taliban. 

In the decades since it was first proposed, the initiative and the world around it have changed profoundly. Optimism and ambition for the BRI have been replaced by broken promises, cracked dams, and wrecked state treasuries throughout the emerging economies and trading partners who took a chance on Xi’s signature infrastructure and investment program.

Introduced as a means to fund much-needed infrastructure and connectivity, the BRI has imposed a staggering bill on the countries that signed up for it. 

Xi claimed at the First BRI Forum that the initiative would establish a “stable and sustainable financial safeguard system that keeps risks under control.” Instead, the opposite occurred.

Unlike Western lenders that often provide direct aid or subsidized loans, China lent $1 trillion (€948 billion) to cash-strapped nations at commercial rates. 

Much more secret debt might be hidden from view, as a 2021 study suggested that as much as half of BRI loans are off the books and omitted from official statistics.

Instead of seeing clearly what is owed, we see the impact on nations, as Zambia and Sri Lanka are driven into bankruptcy and default.

Argentina, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malaysia, Montenegro, Pakistan, and Tanzania are all dealing with extreme debt-to-GDP ratios that force crippling decisions in order to service the debt. 

Since 2010, public debt has tripled in sub-Saharan Africa, driven largely by Chinese lending, and 60% of BRI countries are in debt distress — a 1,200% increase since 2010.

China may be losing some