Bubble Watch 2023: Brace yourself for a month of March Madness bracket selection drama

There's still a good deal of basketball to be played before Selection Sunday, but it's fair to say certain trends have already emerged in the bubble picture. One such feature is the relatively small number of mid-major programs competing for at-large bids in 2023.

Our working definition of a mid-major here at Bubble Watch is any team not named Gonzaga that's outside the six major conferences. We also grant Houston the same Gonzaga-style exemption (and the Cougars are joining the Big 12 next season, anyway).

Using this terminology, the golden age of mid-major at-large bids occurred a decade ago. In the 2012 and 2013 NCAA tournaments combined, a whopping 16 mid-major teams captured at-large bids.

Over the past decade as a whole, however, the average number of mid-major at-large invites has stayed closer to five. That average appears to be a serviceable forecast for what we'll see in 2023.

True, the Mountain West alone has five teams in Bubble Watch. San Diego State, Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah State are all vying for bids.

Barring a bid thief in the conference tournament, however, the number of at-large slots this fivesome earns could conceivably be not only four but three or even two. Beyond the Mountain West, Saint Mary's and Florida Atlantic are the only teams that fit our definition and appear to be on relatively safe ground for at-large bids.

Naturally, conferences have down seasons, and this can influence the numbers we see on Selection Sunday. For example, the Atlantic 10 customarily puts a fair number of at-large teams into the field. But this year the A-10 appears on course for a one-bid season. If that happens it will mark the first time the league has worn the one-bid label since 2005.

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