Bird flu: The next pandemic?

Jean-Christophe Dardenne is a duck farmer in France's southwestern Gers region. Normally, his flocks would be used to roaming freely in the fields, but not anymore. A bird flu epidemic that has gripped Europe for over a year has forced authorities to impose a lockdown on farms across the country. It's been tough to handle, says Jean-Christophe, who doesn't have the necessary equipment to keep his animals indoors.

"Some flocks will never get to see the sun and daylight," he complains, adding that animals kept indoors will grow less quickly, leading to a loss in meat and foie gras production.

Jean-Christophe is among a lucky few to have been spared so far by the disease. But he lives in constant fear that one day the flu will be detected on his farm, and his ducks culled by local authorities. 

"To me this type of management is absurd," he says. "It worries me a lot for the future."

The highly infectious strain of bird flu has been ripping through farms for a number of years. Influenza A, also known as H5N1, was first detected at a goose farm in China in 1996. It can spread through entire flocks of birds through the animals' droppings and saliva. 

This is the fourth wave of avian influenza to grip Europe since 2015, but also its worst outbreak on record, with nearly 50 million poultry culled in 2022. France ranks among the countries hit hardest by the disease, with nearly 16 million poultry killed to prevent the spread of the virus.

The way the disease is expanding has also set off alarm bells. It usually flares up in autumn before fading away in spring and summer. This outbreak, though, has defied all seasons. 

But what really has scientists concerned is the flu's pandemic potential, as infections have been