Betting tips for NBA Western Conference finals - Warriors-Mavericks Game 3

All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

Don't overreact: It is becoming increasingly clear that the Mavericks are putting the fate of their season in their ability to make 3s (56.7% of their shots have come from downtown) and with that comes extreme variance. What does that do? It opens up the window for value in-game. Through two games, Dallas has as many quarters with under 20 points as over 30 points (three), so keep an eye on the live lines after an outlier Mavericks quarter (in either direction).

— Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks9 p.m ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas

Line: Mavericks (-3)Money line: Warriors (+130), Mavericks (-150)Total: 218 pointsBPI Projected Total: 224.6 pointsBPI Win%: Mavericks (67%)

Questionable: Andrew Wiggins (ankle)

Note: BPI numbers factor in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play.

Notable: The Warriors have covered three straight games, rebounding nicely from a seven-game stretch in which they covered just once.

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Best bet: under 218 points. When at home, the Mavericks play entirely differently than they do on the road. In the playoffs, at home, the Mavs have been defensive stalwarts, allowing opponents to score only 93.5 PPG in their six games. The pace is slower, and the number of possessions shrink. In their six home games, the Mavs and their opponents have combined to average 198.8 PPG, and haven't gone over 214 points in any game thus far. The Warriors can score anywhere, but in their last two playoff road games they've only managed 101 and 95 points. — Andre Snellings

Best bet: Stephen Curry under 26.5 points. I'm coming back to the well