Betting Army-Navy: Why you should expect a high-powered breakout game - ESPN

Rivalry games love to pretend they follow their own rules, but this matchup between Army and Navy feels ready to break formation.

Every season gives us a familiar script, yet something about this game hints that the usual path might not hold. Before you assume another predictable finish, it's worth looking at what actually drives the numbers underneath.

This year has a different engine.

Army at Navy -6
Saturday, Dec. 13, 3 p.m., CBS

Records: Army 6-5, 0-0 vs. AP teams; Navy 9-2, 1-1 vs. AP teams
Opening Line: Navy -4.5, O/U 38.5
Money line: Army (+200); Navy (-245)
Over/Under: 37.5 (O -118, U -102)

Army: Built to control without the tools to create it

Army football's entire identity depends on being efficient but their data expose a team that operates with fragility. At 4.8 yards per play, every drive is a puzzle that requires multiple correct moves in a row. There's no short cut, no explosive theta to bail them out, no quick score hiding in the back pocket. That's why Army has reached the end zone just 35 times all season, one of the lowest totals in the country. The Black Knights can move the ball, but turning movement into points is where it falls apart.

The run defense ranks 121st in the FBS with the second-least efficient pass rush in college — just 14 sacks generated all season. That combo means opponents operate pretty comfortably. If you face Army football, you're walking down the field one clean gain at a time.

Army needs long, uninterrupted drives to survive and a defense that can stall the opponent long enough to buy those drives time. Although, what Army actually gets is bogged down on offense and offers little resistance on defense. When the game tilts, even slightly, Army has no lever to pull to change its