Best bets for Week 11 of the college football season - ESPN

I'm getting a little more specific with what I trust in Week 11. I like New Mexico to make UNLV miserable, but I don't want the Lobos' scoring tied to my ticket. I'm looking for points in Cincinnati-Iowa State and a lot fewer in Tennessee-Texas A&M.

Throw in a home underdog, a couple of quarterback questions and one running back's status worth watching… and we've got ourselves a card.

Here's what I have for this week.

Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

I liked the full-game under, but UNLV's total is what I trust the most here, as New Mexico will be making life difficult for QB Jackson Arnold. I don't need to worry about how many points the Lobos put up against a run defense that Wyoming and Air Force just shredded.

New Mexico stops a third of opposing runs at or behind the line, which threatens Rebels RB Jai'Den Thomas, but also Arnold's ability to pick up yards himself… If UNLV can't get anything going on the ground, Arnold has to throw against a defense allowing successful passes only a third of the time while allowing just five total touchdowns at home this season. New Mexico has allowed the fewest touchdowns this season, tied with Indiana. That's a tough defense to face in order to keep drives alive.

The Lobos also take their time on offense. If they can run on UNLV and burn the clock, the Rebels get fewer chances to figure things out. A big pass could hurt, but I'd rather bet against UNLV doing this repeatedly.

The drop from 61 to 59.5 makes the over more interesting, but Bearcats RB Cole Tabb is the one to monitor. He has 10 rushing touchdowns so far this season and reportedly participated in walkthroughs and is doing much better. That's encouraging although it doesn't confirm he'll play. With JV Gibson in