Best bets for the CFP semifinals: Where are the edges in the Fiesta and Peach bowls? - ESPN

The stakes are simple for the semifinal round of the College Football Playoff: win and you're playing for a national championship.

What makes this slate different are the teams not involved. No Ohio State, Alabama or Georgia. That alone makes this weekend feel lighter, freer, and honestly overdue.

So instead, we get matchups that test very different ideas of how football games are won. Styles clash, narratives flip and, for once, nobody will be tired of the same old ending.

It has been a great playoff run, so let's keep it going.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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Fiesta Bowl | Peach Bowl

College Football Playoff Semifinal
at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
No. 10 Miami -3.5 at No. 6 Ole Miss
Thursday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Records: Miami 10-2, 4-0 vs. AP Top 25; Ole Miss 11-1, 2-1 vs. AP Top 25
Opening line: Miami -3, O/U 51.5
Money line: Miami (-166); Ole Miss (+140)
Over/under: 52.5 (O -105, U -115)

The Hurricanes' pass rush tilts this matchup. They have the second-best pass-rush grade behind only Texas Tech, generating pressure without heavy blitzing, allowing their secondary to stay intact, which is helpful against any offense built on timing.

Miami's coverage grade (13th) supports that strength, aiding in takeaways (they have the eighth-most interceptions this season) and capitalizing when quarterbacks are forced into late decisions.

The concern is their tackling grade (117th) which shows up when opponents stay balanced and force defenders into space. Miami can dominate games when opponents become one-dimensional, but struggle when asked to defend both run schemes and quarterback movement over four quarters.

The biggest question I have for Miami: Does the Canes' pass rush create enough negative plays early? If it