Barcelona and Majorca will shift to a desert-like climate by 2050, new drought study warns

Spain is slipping into a desert climate, according to a new study into the relationship between global heating and drought. 

The Mediterranean country is clearly on the frontlines of climate change in Europe. Now researchers at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) in Barcelona have delved deeper into its climate vitals. 

By 2050, they predict that rainfall will decrease by up to 20 per cent compared to current levels. This would tip Spain from a temperate Mediterranean climate into a steppe- or even desert-like one, as per the Köppen system which divides the world into five different climate zones based on plant growth.

“The warming process resulting from climate change has been very pronounced in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands, representing a true hotspot,” the researchers write.

Presented at the International Meteorology Congress of the European Meteorological Society (EMS) in Barcelona earlier this month, their findings reveal a climate in serious flux. 

Between 1971 and 2022, temperatures in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands (including popular holiday destination Mallorca) have increased by 3.27°C.

That’s well above the world average of 1.19°C and Mediterranean average of 1.58°C, according to the experts at UPC’s Soil Policy and Valuations Center (CPSV).

Summer days - where the maximum daily temperature is 25°C or above - rose from 82.4 in 1971 to 117.9 in 2022: a 43 per cent increase. Over half a century, summer has stretched out for an average of 36 days across Spain.

Meanwhile tropical nights - where the mercury doesn’t drop below 25°C -  increased from 1.73 to 14.12. 

The increase in tropical nights is concentrated in the Southern Plateau, the valleys of the Guadalquivir and Ebro rivers, as well