Atlanta Supercross by the numbers: Eli Tomac slightly favored over Cooper Webb

Eli Tomac is widely considered the master of the speedways in the Monster Energy Supercross Series after winning his record-extending seventh Daytona race in March, and his Atlanta Supercross numbers give him a slight advantage this week. Combining the final five venues tells a different story, however.

With five rounds remaining, it’s too soon to say with certainty this is a two-rider battle, but unless Tomac and Webb stumble Chase Sexton is going to be hard pressed to catch them. That means all eyes are on the championship leaders for now. in the remaining venues, Tomac and Webb each have seven wins on those tracks and led in 10 main events. Tomac holds the advantage in podium finishes with 20 to Webb’s 15, but perhaps a more predictive number is Webb’s average finish of 3.7 compared to Tomac’s 4.7.

The difference between finishing first and second in Supercross points is three, so Webb certainly controls his fate. But with Tomac holding such a distinct advantage of seven wins to Webb’s two, the challenger is going to have to find the top box on at least a couple of occasions and those wins could prove to be critical.

Entering last week’s race in Glendale, Webb had a slight edge in the 2023 average finish. Through 11 rounds, Webb boasted a 2.4 to Tomac’s 2.8 but it has been the differential between first and second that has made the difference. With Tomac’s win in Glendale, the average finish differential has fallen to 0.1. Missing the overall podium last week not only cost Webb seven points, it allowed Tomac to match him in season podiums. To this point of the season, both riders now have nine appearances on the box.

Tomac has the wins, but Webb has consistency and is the only rider to sweep the top five so far this