Analysis-World Cup could be nightmare before Christmas for Britain's supermarkets

LONDON : The winter World Cup has added a new level of uncertainty to the Christmas trading outlook of Britain's supermarkets: How do you persuade cash-strapped shoppers to buy yule logs and luxury biscuits at the same time as beer and pizza?

Running between Nov. 20 and Dec. 18, the soccer tournament in Qatar falls directly in the key festive trading quarter where the fiercely competitive sector typically makes a large chunk of its annual profit.

Similarly, World Cups, traditionally held in the northern hemisphere summer, typically provide a major boost to British supermarkets as households stock up on beers, wines and spirits, barbecue food and snacks and host large gatherings.

However, confidence levels among shoppers were at record lows even before the government's, now reversed, new economic plan sent mortgage rates surging and sparked fears of a sharp drop in house prices to compound the cost-of-living crisis.

That means combined spending is likely to be less than if the two events were months apart.

Retail executives say the World Cup, moved to the winter to avoid the intense Qatari summer temperatures, has totally thrown the algorithms they increasingly use to predict trading and plan their logistics.

"It's a nightmare timing from getting any upside out of it," said one grocery industry veteran, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"It's also an executional headache, because right when you want to have everything Christmas out, you've got to somehow reflect slabs of booze and snacking for the World Cup," he said.

There is also a danger that people, distracted by the soccer, do not feel festive and do not turn their attention to Christmas spending until after the tournament, leading to a frantic final week of trading,