2026 World Cup Simulated 100,000 Times: Here Are The Results

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup were played not once but 100,000 times, who would lift the trophy most often?

That's the question Sportradar put to an AI simulation engine, which ran the entire 48-team tournament across one hundred thousand universes. Sportradar is a sports technology company that provides real-time sports data and stats to media companies, betting services and professional leagues.

The results of the simulation reveal the favorites, the dark horses worth backing to advance, and how the host nations performed. 

Let's take a look:

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The 12 Group Winners

There were no surprises when it came to which teams won each of the 12 groups in the sims, as all the betting favorites had the highest probability of winning their respective groups and did so at least 40% of the time.

The 12 Group Runners-Up

There were some surprises, however, when it came to group runners-up.

For instance, in Group A, South Korea has qualified for the last 11 World Cups but finished behind Czechia—a team that hasn't participated in a World Cup in 20 years.

Similarly, in Group B, Canada, which is 0-0-6 (W-D-L) all-time at the World Cup, finished ahead of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the team that knocked Italy out of this year's tournament.

Last Eight Teams

Below are the eight third-place teams that had the highest probability of making the knockout stage based on the sims.

Three African teams are expected to be in this group, along with two European teams, two Asian teams, and one South American squad.

Analyzing the Final

France vs. Spain was the most common